Our Work:
Scenario Planning, Corporate Strategy, and Futures Analysis

Tools to “Manage Future Uncertainty”

FSG’s core offering is scenario-based strategic planning. The principals of FSG have been practicing scenario planning together for more than 15 years, across a range of business and government settings. As practiced by FSG, scenario planning is not a forecasting technique or a substitute for yearly business planning. Rather, it is a rigorous approach to long-term or strategic planning that explicitly deals with the uncertainty that often surrounds difficult executive decisions. The applications of scenario planning are many. Our clients have used scenario planning to:

• chart high-level corporate direction;
• prioritize capital investment decisions;
• develop contingent business plans;
• manage and prioritize R&D spending; and to
• develop new product and service concepts.

CEOs often use FSG scenario planning workshops to build executive alignment around a common vision for the enterprise. More recently, we helped a major New York financial institution create robust business continuity plans by considering scenario-contingent terrorist events and market conditions.

FSG offers other tools to help clients manage future uncertainty:

• Futures Audit is a pre-scenario diagnostic technique to help clients assess preparedness for changes in their markets or in the broader business environment.
• Trend Impact Analysis is a “Monte Carlo”-based simulation tool to assess the probable impact of specific exogenous events on baseline market forecasts.
• Technology Sequence Analysis helps clients understand and anticipate critical junctures in technology development.
• Emerging Markets Planning focuses on the specific dynamics of developing country markets and helps decision-makers more critically evaluate longer-term risks and opportunities.