Indicative Scenario Planning Projects

Project Descriptions

Part One: Private Sector Projects

R&D Strategy for Global Pharmaceutical Firm. The U.S. research & development division of a global pharmaceutical firm engaged FSG principals to develop a model and evaluation process for assessing the viability of yet-to-be developed products. The consulting team, working closely with a multi-disciplinary team of client executives, created a set of market scenarios with a 25-year future market horizon to identify the health care market dynamics likely to be faced by products not yet in the R&D pipeline. Key inputs into the scenario development process were outside research, interviews with external opinion leaders and internal interviews with senior scientists in the U.S. and Europe, and client executives, up to and including the CEO.

For the U.S. pharmaceutical research division, we helped planners understand the range of future patient and customer needs and issues, in the face of demographic, social, economic, regulatory, and social changes. This work represented a key input into a complex modeling effort to identify high-potential molecules for development. The company used this information on the future pharmaceutical marketplace to set research priorities. The scenarios represented a “future market” screen to help evaluate the business potential of new therapies. The engagement was also an important training tool for mid-level executives gaining increasing responsibility for making decisions in rapidly shifting markets and operating milieus. As evidence that the knowledge transfer was successful, client scenario work teams took full “ownership” of the scenarios and continued to apply them long after the consulting team had completed its work.

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