FSG’s long-term planning work with the U.S. Coast Guard under Project Evergreen continues into 2008. In April, FSG engaged the perspectives of the Coast Guard's entire senior leadership at their semi-annual Flag Conference. Later this year, FSG will direct a scenario planning training session at the USCG’s Chief Petty Officer Academy in Petaluma, CA. The Coast Guard’s experience with scenario-based strategic planning is chronicled in the publication Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the Coast Guard. A limited number of complimentary copies are available from FSG. To request one, please follow this link.

U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen (Center) at the April Flag Conference. Also pictured (left to right) are FSG principals Charles Thomas and Charles Perrottet, Admiral Allen, FSG principal Peter Kennedy and USCG Captain Sam Neill.

Enterprise Risk Management State-of-the-Art…

Peter Kennedy’s observations about the state of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) today appear in the May/June 2008 issue of Strategy & Leadership. Peter reports on industry best practices as presented at the Conference Board’s 2007 ERM session in New York. Among his observations: increasing numbers of practitioners are worried about over-reliance on quantitative models to predict risk and market discontinuities.

Predictions are hazardous in the current environment. A week of good news on the equity markets is more often than not offset the next by record highs for oil and lows for the dollar. Few expect the environment to simmer down or for the way ahead to grow any clearer in the months to come – which is why strategic management scenarios adapted for short-term planning and decision support might be the best way to see through the fog. Patrick Marren, meanwhile, unravels the mystique of the R (recession) word in the forthcoming issue of Journal of Business Strategy.

There are many different planning, forecasting and risk management activities that go under the heading “scenario planning.” This results in no shortage of confusion among practitioners. In the interest of adding clarity to the discussion, Charles Thomas describes and discusses each of the major varieties of scenarios in the current edition of FSG Outlook.

December 2004
June 2005
January 2007
April 2007
November 2007
January 2008