FSG News

Scenario Projects, FSG People, and Current Events

June 2009

RECESSION STRATEGIES - AND RECOVERY READINESS …

The opening days of June are giving US executives and planners some justifiable grounds for optimism. On June 1, the S&P hit a seven month high, backed by surprisingly positive news that bank profitability had returned, housing and auto sales were rising from the dead, and consumer confidence had begun the long climb back to health. The fact that General Motor’s June 1 bankruptcy filing did not overshadow these hopeful developments is good news in itself. But planners have good reason to be wary and concerned about the bubbly market news of late. There’s just simply too much up in the air right now to lean too heavily on the upside. Consumer confidence, while improving, is still very fragile and subject to additional setbacks if unemployment spikes again and/or housing prices take another deep dive. Moreover, there is – and will be for some time – considerable uncertainty about major regulatory developments coming in, among other sectors, financial services and healthcare. These will have systemic repercussions. Developing recession strategies on the basis of alternative scenarios is one way to “manage” this uncertainty. FSG’s Recession/Recovery Decision Matrix^sm is a set of four scenarios that capture a broad range of alternative business environments for the 2009-2011 period. These Recession/Recovery scenarios are designed specifically for organizations looking for a thoughtful, rigorous approach to evaluating a range of weighty short-term decisions, many of which have longer-term, strategic consequences.

CONVERSATIONS ON ARCTIC STRATEGY …

Scott Borgerson of Rhumb Line LLC, FSG’s partner in the Arctic Futures Initiative, was back on Capitol Hill in May testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the national security implications of the melting Arctic. In April, Scott delivered a keynote address to the joint annual conference of the United States Northern Command (NORTHCOM) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) in New Orleans.

ROBERT AVILA BRINGS SCENARIO MODELING AND FORECASTING CAPABILITIES TO FSG …

Longtime friend and former colleague Robert Avila has joined FSG as an Associate. Robert’s association with FSG principals goes back more than 15 years, when he served as economist and consultant for The Futures Group, Inc. Most recently, Robert founded FutureCrunch LLC, a New York-based economic consulting firm. FutureCrunch develops mission-critical, data-driven insights and recommendations for business, drawing on its deep knowledge of industry and the economy, markets and consumers. Mr. Avila has advised companies on strategy and market conditions for more than twenty years. He is an authority on market modeling, business forecasting and methods to link these functions to scenario-based planning. Finally, for the last couple of years, Robert has been a regular contributor to FSG Outlook. Welcome, Robert!.

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