As if anyone needs a reminder, 2008 is a presidential election year and many planners are wondering what policy changes may be in store after the next president is sworn in on January 20, 2009. FSG is helping one organization sift through the incipient risks, opportunities and uncertainties with the help of short-term policy scenarios, created specifically for the purpose of anticipating changes in priorities and programs at the federal level. As always, we make no assumptions about who will be sitting in the White House in a year. All plausible possibilities are considered.

Managing New Global Risks…

With global, financial and political events creating increasing turbulence in the operating environment, scenario planning is developing into an increasingly popular and useful application for risk management. On January 11, 2008, FSG partnered with Board Advisory Services and Collective Intelligence in conducting a day-long scenario-planning workshop for the Institute for Internal Auditors in New York. The 70 participants represented industry, finance, government, academia, and the NGO community. The three groups will hold another workshop in the second half of this year. Also, FSG principal Peter Kennedy will be reporting on strategic risk management trends for an upcoming issue of Strategy & Leadership magazine.

We expect to see increasing discussion of foreign policy changes in the year ahead. Foreign aid is one key dimension of this challenge. In 2007, FSG and Booz Allen Hamilton facilitated a scenario-planning workshop for the HELP Commission to support the organization in drafting recommendations for foreign assistance reform in their final report, which was delivered last month. This was another very productive application of the long-term scenarios FSG and Booz Allen originally developed for Project Horizon, an interagency planning engagement sponsored by the State Department and 12 other agencies and departments.

Project Evergreen II, the scenario-based strategic planning process FSG is facilitating for the U.S. Coast Guard, is now well into its second year. In 2007, we held three highly successful workshops, the most recent of which was last September, for a senior group of officers and civilian leaders. Commandant Thad Allen, long an enthusiastic advocate of scenario planning, personally kicked off the workshop. The output developed by workshop participants is now being refined into a formal strategy document, which will be reviewed with the entire flag corps of the USCG.

We are entering year two of a five-year support contract with NASA Langley Research Center. Our assignment for this year remains to be determined, but we are certain it will be as challenging and interesting as it always has been.

FSG will be launching several major writing projects this year, including an article that explores the practical challenges of executing strategic insights. This follows our well-received presentation on this subject last July at the 2007 annual meeting of the World Future Society.

Patrick Marren's regular column, "Alternative Strategies," continues to appear in every issue of the Journal of Business Strategy. 2008 will kick off with columns on business jargon and capitalistic creative destruction.

In the training area, FSG has scenario introduction workshops planned for 2008, including several sessions of the Senior Marketing Workshop course (led by Dr. Bill Putsis of University of North Carolina's Keenan-Flagler School of Business) at the Boeing Leadership Center and taught by FSG principal Charles Thomas.

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